New Zealanders bullish for housing market amid headwinds: survey

Kiwis are backing New Zealand's housing market to continue climbing despite numerous headwinds, according to the ASB (Auckland Savings Bank) Housing Confidence Survey released on Monday.

For the three months to October, a net 62 percent of respondents said they expected house prices to increase over the coming 12 months, up from a net 58 percent last quarter. South Islanders are the most house price confident at 65 percent.

ASB senior economist Mike Jones said, "Kiwis' housing confidence has remained stratospheric all year. Credit rationing, tax changes, lockdowns - nothing has shaken the public's confidence that house prices are going to keep rising. And, so far, they've been right."

"But we'd be remiss not to flag a few big speedbumps we see in the distance. The Reserve Bank is no longer content to let the good times roll, and we've long pegged 2022 as the year we finally get some movement on the housing supply imbalance. At the very least, 2022 looks like a year in which lofty housing confidence will be tested," said Jones.

Buyer sentiment crumbled further this quarter, hitting a five-year low with a net 23 percent of respondents saying it was a bad time to buy a house. Sentiment was particularly negative in Canterbury, with a net 30 percent believing it's a bad time to buy there. This compares to a net 20 percent in the rest of the South Island, 25 percent in the North Island outside of Auckland, and 19 percent in Auckland.

"Wildly-stretched house prices paired with steep rises in mortgage rates are not a palatable combination for home buyers. Perceptions of whether it's a good time to buy are now within a whisker of the all-time low struck in October 2016. We wouldn't be surprised to see fresh lows before this cycle is done. We suspect the house price upswing has got a little further to run, and the upward pressure on mortgage rates looks likely to remain," said Jones.