Brazil's financial market raises 2023 inflation forecast to 5.74 percent

Brazil's financial market raised the inflation forecast for the end of 2023 from 5.48 percent to 5.74 percent, and for 2024, from 3.84 percent to 3.90 percent, the Central Bank of Brazil said on Monday.

Central bank officials have set target inflation at 3.25 percent for 2023 and at 3 percent for next year, in both cases with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points.

According to the bank's Focus survey of the country's top financial institutions, analysts maintained the forecast benchmark interest rate at 12.50 percent, a rate that is now at 13.75 percent annually, but said they expect it to gradually decline to 9.50 percent in 2024.

Regarding Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP), analysts slightly upgraded their 2023 growth forecast from 0.79 to 0.80 percent, but kept it at 1.50 percent for next year.

Brazil's currency, which currently trades at 5.11 reals to the U.S. dollar, is expected to trade at 5.25 to the dollar by the end of the year, and at 5.30 to the dollar by the end of 2024.

Regarding trade balance, the market estimate stood at 57.6 billion U.S. dollars of surplus at the end of 2023 and 52.4 billion dollars in surplus in 2024.

Foreign direct investment in Brazil was estimated to reach 80 billion dollars in both 2023 and 2024.